Formal and Computational Modelling with Olga Perski
👉 Listen on Spotify | Listen on Apple 👈
In our seventh episode, we turn the tables: co-host Dr Olga Perski joins Christoph as the guest to introduce formal and computational modelling in health psychology.
We discuss the “theory crisis” in psychology and why theories expressed only in natural language can be difficult to test. If a theory cannot generate precise predictions, it can be unclear what evidence would support or challenge it—and what exactly it says about the timing, strength, and direction of psychological processes.
Olga explains what formal and computational modelling involves and how equations and computer simulations can function as practical thinking tools. Together, we explore Theory Construction Methodology and the steps to formalising a theory.
Using smoking cessation and the COMPLAPSE model as an example, we discuss how dynamical models can be developed through interdisciplinary and participatory research. The conversation covers the role of stakeholder and lived-experience input, measurement and time resolution, individual differences, model assumptions, and the potential for models to inform just-in-time adaptive interventions.
If this episode sparked your interest and you would like to explore the topic further, here are some helpful resources:
Perski, O., & Allen, J. (2025). Formal, dynamical systems modelling to advance health psychology theories: Interdisciplinary working where psychology meets mathematics. European Health Psychologist. https://doi.org/10.62696/66jq0x95
Perski, O., Allen, J. M., Kim, M., Pavel, M., Hankonen, N., & Hekler, E. (2026). Using Formal and Computational Modelling to Develop an Initial Within-Person System Dynamics Model of Relapse in Smoking Cessation: A Participatory, Iterative, Multi-Method Approach. Peer Community Journal, 6. https://peercommunityjournal.org/articles/10.24072/pcjournal.802/
Course in Formal Modeling of Psychological Theories: https://nicebread.github.io/FOMO-Psy/
Oberauer, K., & Lewandowsky, S. (2019). Addressing the theory crisis in psychology. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 26(5), 1596-1618. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31515732/
Deterding, S., Guckelsberger, C., Lintunen, E. M., & Ady, N. M. (2026). Advancing Self-Determination Theory via computational modelling: the case of competence and optimal challenge. Motivation and Emotion, 50(1), 80-99. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11031-025-10156-8
Borsboom, D., Van Der Maas, H. L., Dalege, J., Kievit, R. A., & Haig, B. D. (2021). Theory construction methodology: A practical framework for building theories in psychology. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 16(4), 756-766. https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691620969647